Highlights

• • Normalized market probabilities: Home ~48.7%, Away ~51.3%
• • Away at 1.81 yields EV ≈ -0.07 (no value)

Pros

• + Market price shows the away team is the slight favorite after normalization
• + We use a conservative, vig-adjusted approach given the lack of data

Cons

• - No match-specific data (surface, form, injuries, H2H) to justify an edge
• - Current prices do not reach the min_required_decimal_odds (~1.949) for value on the away side

Details

We have no external research to differentiate these pairs, so we conservatively derive true win probabilities by removing the market vig from the quoted prices. Implied probabilities from the market are 52.36% (Home at 1.91) and 55.25% (Away at 1.81); after normalizing to remove the bookmaker margin those become roughly 48.68% Home / 51.32% Away. Using our best conservative estimate (Away win probability = 0.5132) against the available price for the away side (1.81) yields a negative expected value (EV = p * odds - 1 ≈ -0.070). Because expected_value is below zero at current market prices and we lack surface, form, injury, or H2H data to justify deviating from the normalized market estimate, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • No external research or recent form/injury/H2H data available
• • Market odds imply a slight edge to the away pair; after removing vig we estimate Away ~51.32%
• • Calculated EV at current away price (1.81) is negative
• • High uncertainty due to lack of surface/venue and player-specific information