H. Jebens/A. Olivetti vs M. Martineau/J. Paris
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value found at current prices: the favorite at 1.32 is marginally worse than our conservative true probability, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Estimated true probability for home: 75%
- • Current home odds (1.32) produce a small negative EV (-0.01) vs our estimate
Pros
- + Clear market favorite — outcome is not highly uncertain
- + Odds reflect market consensus, reducing variance risk if we had stronger data
Cons
- - Price for the favorite is slightly too short relative to our conservative probability
- - Lack of surface, form, and injury information prevents confident deviation from market prices
Details
We conservatively estimate the home pairing H. Jebens/A. Olivetti has a ~75% true win probability (0.75) given they are listed as firm favorites. The current market price of 1.32 implies a probability (~75.76%) that is slightly shorter than our estimate once we account for a bookmaker overround, leaving no positive edge. EV at the listed home price = 0.75 * 1.32 - 1 = -0.01, so the favorite is marginally overbet relative to our conservative forecast. The away price (3.15) would require an implied win chance >31.7% to be profitable; our view of the underdog is ~25%, making that side negative EV as well. Given the absence of surface, form, injury, and H2H data in the research, we maintain conservative probabilities and decline to recommend a side because neither price offers positive expected value.
Key factors
- • Home team is the clear favorite on the price; our conservative estimated win probability is 75%
- • Bookmaker margin/overround makes the listed favorite price slightly unattractive versus our estimate
- • No additional match-specific data (surface, recent form, injuries, H2H) available — we err on the side of caution