Hady Habib vs Kaipo Marshall
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see no value at current prices—Habib is the clear favorite but the book price (1.03) is shorter than our fair odds (≈1.053), producing a small negative expected value.
Highlights
- • Habib far more experienced and has wins at higher levels
- • Marshall is 0-6 with limited data, making a >10% upset chance unlikely
Pros
- + Clear qualitative mismatch in favour of the home player
- + Market reflects the mismatch, offering a very short price for Habib
Cons
- - Current market price for Habib is too short to offer value
- - Marshall’s low sample size leaves a non-zero upset tail, but not enough to justify backing him at 10.0
Details
We estimate Hady Habib is a very heavy favorite vs Kaipo Marshall based on far greater match experience (56 matches vs 6) and a winning record, while Marshall is 0-6 at tour level. The market price (Habib 1.03 implied ≈97.09%) overstates Habib's win probability relative to our estimate. We estimate Habib's true win probability at ~95.0%, which requires minimum fair decimal odds of 1.053 to break even; the current 1.03 offers negative expected value. The away side would need >10% true probability to be +EV at 10.0, which is implausible given Marshall's 0-6 pro record and limited game data. Therefore no side offers positive EV at current prices.
Key factors
- • Large experience gap: Habib 56 matches vs Marshall 6 matches
- • Marshall is 0-6 in recorded matches, making a >10% upset probability unlikely
- • Market price implies ~97.1% for Habib; our estimate ~95% means no value at 1.03