Hajar Crinebouch vs Chrystal Lopez

Highlights

• • Favorite (Lopez) implied by market: ~60% after normalization; our estimate 58%
• • Required decimal for positive EV on Lopez is ~1.724; current price 1.55 is too low

Pros

• + Market clarity: favorite is well-defined which simplifies a conservative estimate
• + Available odds allow a straightforward EV calculation

Cons

• - No match-specific research returned — surface, injuries, and recent form unknown
• - Both sides produce negative EV at current prices under our conservative probabilities

Details

With no external data returned, we adopt a conservative, market-aware estimate. The book market prices Chrystal Lopez as the clear favorite at 1.55 (implied ~60% after normalizing for vig). We estimate Lopez's true win probability at 58% (home Hajar Crinebouch 42%), reflecting slight skepticism versus the market but not enough to flip the edge. At our estimate the required fair decimal for Lopez is ~1.724; the offered 1.55 is below that threshold and yields a negative expected value. The home price (2.33) is attractive superficially but our estimated 42% win probability implies a small negative edge at 2.33. Given high uncertainty (no form, surface, injury, or H2H data) we decline to recommend a side because neither available price offers positive EV.

Key factors

• • No available match-specific data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) forces conservative priors
• • Market strongly favors away at 1.55; normalized market implied probability ~60% vs our 58%
• • Small overround and limited information increase uncertainty and risk of model error