Highlights

• • Market implies 38.0% for away; we estimate 52% — clear edge
• • Hala's recent results and 10-21 record argue against the heavy favorite tag

Pros

• + Large positive expected value at current odds (≈0.368 ROI)
• + Decision driven by explicit discrepancy between market-implied and form-derived probabilities

Cons

• - Research contains limited information on the away player, increasing model uncertainty
• - If there are unreported injuries, surface preferences, or matchup specifics favoring Hala, our edge could evaporate

Details

We identify value on the away side (Suryanshi Shekhawat) because the market price (away 2.63 -> implied 38.0%) materially underprices the most relevant evidence in the research. Hala Fouad's published profile shows a 10-21 career mark (31 matches, ~32.3% career win rate) and poor recent form with multiple recent losses, suggesting her true chance here is well below the market's implied 69.4% for the home side. Given the lack of contrary data for the away player in the provided research, it is conservative to split the difference versus the market skew and place our estimated true probability for the away win at 52.0%. That implies the market is offering significant value: EV = 0.52 * 2.63 - 1 = 0.3676 (≈36.8% ROI). We therefore recommend backing the away player at the current widely available price (2.63).

Key factors

• • Hala Fouad's poor overall record (10-21; ~32% career win rate) and recent string of losses
• • Market-implied probabilities (home 1.44 -> 69.4%, away 2.63 -> 38.0%) appear to over-favor the home player given available form data
• • Limited data on the away player increases uncertainty but also implies market mispricing in favor of the listed home favorite