Hamad Medjedovic vs Yanki Erel
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market price for Medjedovic (1.04) is too short relative to a reasoned ~90% win probability; no value exists at current odds.
Highlights
- • Implied market win rate for Medjedovic: ~96.2%
- • Our estimated true win probability for Medjedovic: 90% → negative EV at current price
Pros
- + Medjedovic has higher-level hard-court experience that makes him a clear favorite
- + Surface profiles overlap (both play hard), favoring the higher-tier player
Cons
- - Bookmaker price leaves no margin for error—would need near-certain outcome to be +EV
- - Erel’s solid win-rate at lower levels means upsets are plausible and the market overstates certainty
Details
The market price (Hamad Medjedovic 1.04, implied win ~96.2%) is an extreme favorite line. From the supplied profiles, Medjedovic has solid experience at higher-level hard-court events (recent US Open and Winston-Salem appearances) while Yanki Erel’s results appear concentrated at lower-level hard-court events (M25 level). That supports Medjedovic being the clear favorite, but the bookmaker’s implied probability (~96.2%) is substantially higher than a realistic estimate based on form and win-rates in the research. We estimate Medjedovic's true chance around 90% against Erel given surface overlap and higher-level match experience; at that probability the 1.04 price produces negative EV (EV = 0.90*1.04 - 1 = -0.064). To be +EV at 1-unit stakes the true win probability would need to exceed the bookmaker’s implied ~96.15%, which is not supported by the provided data. Therefore we do not recommend betting at the current prices.
Key factors
- • Bookmaker implied probability (96.15%) is much higher than our estimated true probability (90%)
- • Medjedovic shows higher-level hard-court experience (US Open, Winston-Salem) which justifies favoritism but not near-certain win odds
- • Erel has a strong win-rate at lower-level events on hard courts and is a realistic upset threat