Hamish Stewart vs Dimitris Sakellaridis

Highlights

• • Implied away probability 12.5% vs our estimate 14.0%
• • Min required odds for value: 7.143 — current 8.00 exceeds that

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at the available price (EV = +0.12 per unit)
• + Sakellaridis has enough hard-court experience and baseline win-rate to justify a low-probability upset

Cons

• - Hamish Stewart's stronger overall record and recent activity make an upset unlikely — outcome variance is high
• - Edge is small (14% vs 12.5%), sensitive to any new information (injury, late withdrawal, surface specifics)

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to our assessment from the players' profiles and recent form. The book gives Dimitris Sakellaridis 12.50% chance at 8.00 decimal odds (1/8.00). Sakellaridis's career record (24-27) and experience on hard courts means he is not a coinflip underdog versus Hamish Stewart, whose 49-25 record and activity on hard/fast surfaces make him the clear favorite but not a 95% certainty. Taking into account relative win rates, recent match activity, and surface overlap (both have played hard courts), we estimate Sakellaridis's true win probability at 14.0%, which is meaningfully above the market-implied 12.5%. At the available price of 8.00 this produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.14 * 8.00 - 1 = 0.12).

Key factors

• • Market implies Sakellaridis only a 12.5% chance (odds 8.00) which is likely too low given his baseline win-rate and hard-court competence
• • Hamish Stewart has a stronger overall record (49-25) and recent hard-court activity, but that does not justify a ~95% implied probability
• • No reported injuries and both players have recent match activity, so matchup variance and form make a single upset plausible