Highlights

• • Book price for Bass (4.21) implies ~23.8% chance; we estimate ~28%
• • Positive expected value at current odds: ~+0.18 units on a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Underdog's career win rate exceeds the market-implied probability
• + Both players have played on similar surfaces, limiting a clear surface-based advantage for the favorite

Cons

• - Stewart's much larger sample size and higher overall win rate indicate real quality gap
• - Limited head-to-head and small-sample noise for Bass increase outcome variance

Details

We compare the bookmaker-implied probabilities to our modelled win chances using the provided career records and recent form. The market prices Hamish Stewart at 1.195 (implied win probability ~83.8%), which we consider too high given Stewart's career win rate (49/74 = ~66%) and the fact both players have experience on the reported surfaces. Finn Bass's record (10/29 = ~34%) implies a substantially higher baseline chance than the market's implied 23.8% at 4.21. Allowing for match-specific variance, small-sample noise for Bass, and Stewart's heavy recent match volume, we estimate Bass's true win probability at 28%. At the available price of 4.21 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.28 * 4.21 - 1 ≈ +0.179). Therefore we recommend the away upset (Finn Bass) as a value play at current odds.

Key factors

• • Stewart career win rate (~66%) vs Bass (~34%) — gap exists but not as wide as market pricing implies
• • Both players have experience on hard/grass/carpet surfaces — limited surface edge for Stewart
• • Market-implied probability for Bass (≈23.8%) is noticeably below his career win rate, creating value