Hamish Stewart vs Mats Rosenkranz
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small positive edge on Hamish Stewart at 1.699 (estimated true win probability 60%), producing ≈+1.9% ROI; edge is modest and sensitive to model variance.
Highlights
- • Stewart fair price ~1.667; market offers 1.699
- • Small positive EV but margin of error is narrow
Pros
- + Slightly better overall win-rate and suitability to hard/carpets
- + Current market price is marginally richer than our fair price, yielding positive EV
Cons
- - Edge is small and vulnerable to estimation error or unreported factors (injury, matchup specifics)
- - No H2H or detailed match-up breakdown in the provided research increases uncertainty
Details
We estimate Hamish Stewart has a modest edge based on career win rates, recent results and surface overlap: Stewart's 49-25 record (~66%) and consistent results on hard courts give him a small advantage over Mats Rosenkranz (44-30). The market decimal price for Stewart is 1.699 (implied probability ~58.9%). We estimate Stewart's true win probability at 60.0%, which yields a minimum fair price of 1.667. At the available 1.699 there is positive expected value because 0.60 * 1.699 - 1 = +0.019 (≈+1.9% ROI). The edge is small and sensitive to our probability estimate, but at the quoted price we find value on the home player after accounting for a modest bookmaker margin.
Key factors
- • Stewart has a slightly better career win-rate and consistent form on hard/carpets
- • Both players have experience on hard courts, but Rosenkranz's recent results look less convincing
- • Market implied probability (≈58.9%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (60%), creating a small edge