Hamish Stewart vs Pierre Delage
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: Stewart is the clear favorite but the market price (1.298) overstates his chances versus our ~70% estimate, producing negative EV.
Highlights
- • Stewart stronger by career win rate and activity level
- • Current favorite price implies a higher probability than our model
Pros
- + Home/favored player has broader match experience and recent activity
- + Surface compatibility (both have hard-court history) favors a neutral assessment, supporting Stewart advantage
Cons
- - Market price for Stewart is too short to generate value
- - Limited direct H2H and some uncertainty about exact playing surface and current form
Details
We estimate Hamish Stewart is the stronger player based on a larger sample (49-25) and broader surface activity including hard courts, and we place his true win probability at ~70%. The market price of 1.298 implies ~77% and therefore appears overpriced versus our estimate, offering no positive EV on the favorite. Using our 70% estimate, the required fair decimal price would be ~1.429; current offered 1.298 yields negative EV (-0.091). The away price (3.28) roughly matches the complementary probability and also produces no positive EV at our estimated probabilities. Given limited direct H2H data and uncertainty on exact surface/conditions, we decline to recommend a side because neither available market price offers positive expected value.
Key factors
- • Stewart has a larger match sample and higher career win rate (49-25 vs 20-14)
- • Both players have hard-court experience, but Stewart is more recently active
- • Market heavily favors Stewart (implied ~77%) which exceeds our estimated true probability