Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.50) is ~66.7% vs our estimate 60%
• • Away would require ≥2.50 to be +EV vs our 40% estimate; current 2.45 is slightly short

Pros

• + We applied conservative, transparent probability estimates in absence of data
• + Clear numeric comparison shows both market prices are unfavorable after accounting for vig

Cons

• - Estimates are conservative assumptions due to lack of match-specific info
• - Market may be over- or under-reacting to unobserved factors we cannot account for

Details

We have no external match data or form/injury information, so we apply conservative assumptions and compare our estimated win probabilities to the market-implied odds. The market prices the home player at 1.50 (implied ~66.7%) and the away player at 2.45 (implied ~40.8%). Conservatively we estimate the home win probability at 60% (0.60) and the away at 40% (0.40). At those estimates the fair decimal price for the home is ~1.667 and for the away ~2.50. Current market prices (home 1.50, away 2.45) are both shorter than our required prices, producing negative expected value on either side once our conservative probabilities are used and accounting for market vig. Therefore we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • No external data available — we used conservative baseline probabilities
• • Market-implied probabilities (home ~66.7%, away ~40.8%) are shorter than our estimates after accounting for vig
• • Both sides show negative EV versus our conservative true-probability estimates