Hanamichi Carvajal Suazo vs Poonthong Komopisut
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We do not recommend betting at the current 1.86 line—available data on Poonthong points toward weakness, but lack of verified information on Hanamichi and the bookmaker margin mean we can't justify value above the ~53.8% threshold.
Highlights
- • Poonthong's documented win rate is low and recent results are negative.
- • Current market odds require a >53.8% win probability to be +EV; our estimate is below that after accounting for uncertainty.
Pros
- + Research clearly indicates Poonthong has struggled, which reduces the chance he is underpriced.
- + Market symmetry suggests bookmakers are conservative here, protecting against easy edges.
Cons
- - No available profile or form data for Hanamichi in the provided research to identify a reliable edge.
- - Even if Hanamichi is the stronger player, uncertainty and book margin mean current odds likely do not offer sufficient value.
Details
We see a symmetric market price (1.86/1.86) but the available research only profiles Poonthong Komopisut, who has a short career (2024–2025) with a 10–21 record (~32% career win rate) and recent losses. There is insufficient positive evidence on Hanamichi Carvajal Suazo in the provided research to justify a higher true win probability than the market-implied threshold. At current decimal odds (1.86) the required win probability for positive EV is ~53.8%; our conservative estimated true probability for the likely stronger side does not exceed that threshold once we account for the uncertainty and bookmaker margin, so we do not find value to recommend a bet.
Key factors
- • Poonthong Komopisut career record 10-21 (~32% win rate) and recent losses
- • Market shows symmetrical pricing (1.86/1.86) implying uncertainty and embedded margin
- • No usable data in the provided research on Hanamichi to justify a higher confidence estimate