Highlights

• • Home implied probability: ~60.2% vs our estimate 58% -> no value
• • Away needs >48.31% to be +EV at 2.07; we estimate ~42% -> no value

Pros

• + Conservative, data-light approach reduces overconfidence without external info
• + Clear threshold (min required odds) provided if better prices appear

Cons

• - Limited information increases uncertainty of probability estimates
• - Potential overlooked situational factors (surface preference, late withdrawals) could change value

Details

We compare the market prices (Home 1.662, Away 2.07) to our conservative true-probability estimates. With no external form/injury/H2H data available, we adopt a conservative edge to the home player but not enough to justify backing the favorite at 1.662. The market-implied probability for the home side is ~60.2% while our assessed true probability is 58%, so the home price is overpriced from our perspective (negative EV). The away side would require a true win probability above ~48.31% to be +EV at 2.07; we estimate the away at ~42%, so it is also negative EV. Given both sides show negative expected value under our conservative model, we recommend no bet and note the minimum price required to make the home side +EV is ~1.724.

Key factors

• • No external data on form, surface, injuries or H2H — we use conservative assumptions
• • Market-implied home probability (1/1.662) ~60.17% exceeds our estimated true probability (58%)
• • Away needs >48.31% true probability to be +EV at 2.07; our estimate (~42%) is well below that