Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Guo: 38.3%; our estimate: 40.0%
• • Min required odds to justify a bet on Guo: 2.50; current 2.61 exceeds that

Pros

• + Both players have similar records and form per the research, supporting an underdog edge
• + Current away price (2.61) is above our break-even threshold (2.50)

Cons

• - Edge is small (EV ~4.4%) and sensitive to small changes in true probability
• - Research is limited (no H2H, limited match detail), increasing uncertainty

Details

We see market pricing Hanna Chang as a clear favorite (1.476 implied 67.8%) while Meiqi Guo sits at 2.61 (implied 38.3%). The available research shows both players with essentially identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form and surface history (clay/hard) — there is no clear informational edge justifying the market's large gap. Given parity in the provided profiles and no reported injuries or surface advantage, we estimate Guo's true win probability materially above the market-implied 38.3%. Using a conservative true probability of 40.0% for Guo, the min required decimal odds to break even would be 2.50; the current 2.61 therefore offers positive expected value. We use the supplied market odds (2.61) to compute EV: EV = 0.40 * 2.61 - 1 = 0.044 (4.4% ROI). This is a small but real value opportunity driven by symmetric player profiles and an apparent market overprice on the favorite.

Key factors

• • Both players show essentially identical career records (10-21) in the provided profiles
• • No reported injuries or surface advantage in the research — parity on clay/hard
• • Market heavily favors Hanna (1.476) creating a potential misprice on the underdog Guo (2.61)