Hanna Chang vs Katie Volynets

Highlights

• • Identical win-loss records and similar surface histories in the provided research
• • Current decimal 6.3 for Hanna requires only ~15.9% chance to break even, we estimate ~22%

Pros

• + Large margin between market price and our conservative probability estimate yields strong EV
• + No injury or clear-form advantage in the research favoring Volynets

Cons

• - Small-sample data from qualifiers and inconsistent recent results increase uncertainty
• - Extreme market favorite suggests there may be outside information not included in the provided research

Details

We find value backing the home player, Hanna Chang, at the quoted 6.3 decimal price because the market price for Katie Volynets (1.126) implies an overwhelmingly high win probability that is not supported by the provided data. Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form on comparable surfaces (hard and clay) with a string of recent losses; there are no injury flags or decisive form indicators in the research that justify an ~89% probability for Volynets. Given the parity in the available stats and lack of supporting evidence for such a heavy market bias, we estimate Hanna's true win probability materially higher than the break-even threshold for 6.3. Using a conservative true probability estimate of 22% yields positive expected value at the current price (EV = 0.22 * 6.3 - 1 = 0.386). We note substantial uncertainty due to small sample size and qualifier-level variability, which elevates risk despite the apparent value.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical overall records (10-21) in the provided data
• • Recent form for both is weak with recent losses and no clear momentum edge
• • Market heavily favors Volynets (implied ~88.7%) without supporting differences in the supplied stats