Hanwha Life vs T1
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market prices are close to fair; with conservative true-win estimates neither side shows positive EV at current odds, so we do not recommend a bet.
Highlights
- • Normalized market fair probability: T1 ~63.7%, Hanwha ~36.3%
- • Our conservative true probability for T1 (64.0%) still yields negative EV at 1.493
Pros
- + Market is liquid and prices look consistent with our conservative estimates
- + Small margin between market and our model reduces exposure to model error
Cons
- - No independent data on recent form/roster/injuries increases uncertainty
- - Bookmaker overround (~5.2%) makes finding value harder
Details
We normalize the market-implied probabilities (home 1/2.62 ≈ 38.2%, away 1/1.493 ≈ 67.0%; normalized to ~36.3% home / 63.7% away after removing bookmaker overround). Given no independent recent information, we make a conservative adjustment that slightly favors T1 and set our estimated true probability for T1 at 64.0% (Hanwha Life 36.0%). At the quoted away price (1.493) this produces a negative expected return (EV = 0.64 * 1.493 - 1 ≈ -0.044), and the home side likewise shows negative EV versus our estimates. Because neither side offers positive expected value at the current widely-available prices, we recommend no bet. We also note a bookmaker margin of roughly 5.2% (overround ~1.0517) and an elevated uncertainty due to lack of roster/form/injury data, which argues for remaining conservative.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probabilities normalize to ~63.7% for T1 after removing overround
- • No independent recent roster/form/injury data; conservative slight edge to T1
- • Bookmaker margin ~5.2% reduces available market value
- • Home advantage in LCK is limited and does not materially shift probabilities here