Highlights

• • Market implies 85.6% win chance for Kikuchi; we estimate 89%
• • Estimated ROI at current price is about +3.95%

Pros

• + Substantially stronger career record and recent form in supplied data
• + Price still offers a small positive expected value versus our probability estimate

Cons

• - Both players lack documented grass-court performance in the provided research, increasing uncertainty
• - Edge is modest and the low decimal returns mean short-term variance can eliminate gains

Details

The market price of Yuta Kikuchi at decimal 1.168 implies a win probability of ~85.6%. Comparing that to the players' recent profiles, Kikuchi's volume and win-rate (34-23) are substantially stronger than Hanyi Liu's (5-16), and Liu's recent results show persistent losses. Neither player has meaningful recorded grass results in the supplied data, which adds uncertainty, but the objective performance gap and qualifier context strongly favor Kikuchi. We estimate Kikuchi's true win probability at 89.0%, which produces positive expected value versus the market price (EV = 0.89 * 1.168 - 1 = +0.03952, or +3.95% ROI). The edge is modest but real given the available information; key risks are limited grass-surface data and the low payout margin meaning variance can quickly erase gains.

Key factors

• • Clear disparity in career records and recent results (Kikuchi 34-23 vs Liu 5-16)
• • Both players' supplied match history is on hard courts; grass form is unknown, adding surface uncertainty
• • Market-implied probability (85.6%) is below our estimated true probability (89%), creating a small value edge