Hanyu Guo vs Jiaqi Wang
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given nearly identical profiles and no clear edge from the research, the away price of 6.09 represents large value versus our estimated ~48% win probability; high execution risk due to likely market anomaly.
Highlights
- • Both players show similar 10-21 records and comparable recent results
- • Market heavily favors home (1.103) despite no supporting evidence
Pros
- + Large positive expected value at current away odds
- + Assessment is conservative—value persists even with small shifts in true probability
Cons
- - Market price looks anomalous; possibility of data or low-liquidity error
- - High variance and risk if our probability estimate is off
Details
We assess the quoted market as heavily skewed toward the home (1.103) despite the research showing near-identical profiles and recent form for both players. Both profiles list the same career span, identical aggregate records (10-21) and similar recent results on comparable surfaces, providing no clear performance edge for Hanyu Guo. The bookmaker-implied probability for the home player (≈90.6%) is not supported by the available data; a neutral-to-slight advantage estimate for either side is more realistic. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 48% for Jiaqi Wang versus the market's implied ~16.4% (6.09), the away price offers significant positive expected value. We acknowledge this price gap may reflect a data/market anomaly or low-liquidity/erroneous quote, which increases execution risk, but purely on value math the away side is profitable at the provided odds.
Key factors
- • Research shows near-identical career records and recent form for both players
- • Bookmaker-implied probability for home (1.103) is inconsistent with available data
- • Current away odds (6.09) are extremely inflated relative to a realistic ~50/50 contest