Hanyu Guo vs Fangran Tian

Highlights

• • Current away odds 2.29 exceed our fair threshold (2.222) for a 45% win chance
• • Estimated positive EV ≈ 3.05% at current market price

Pros

• + Price offers measurable positive EV versus our probability model
• + Both players’ profiles are similar, supporting a narrower true probability gap than the market implies

Cons

• - Edge is small and relies on limited, noisy ITF-level data
• - No strong distinguishing information (injuries, H2H, surface edge) in provided research — higher variance risk

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities (Home 1.565 => 63.9%, Away 2.29 => 43.7%) to our assessment. The two players have nearly identical career records and surface experience in the provided data (both 10-21, clay/hard exposure) and recent results show neither player in strong form. Given the symmetry of their profiles and lack of distinguishing injury or head-to-head information, we assign a slight underdog edge to the away player relative to the market: we estimate Fangran Tian's true win probability at 45%. At that probability the fair decimal price is 2.222; the current market price of 2.29 therefore offers positive expected value. Using the quoted 2.29 price, the EV = 0.45*2.29 - 1 = +0.0305 (≈3.05% ROI). The edge is modest and depends on limited data, but the current away price provides value versus our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and surface experience in supplied data (10-21)
• • Recent form in the research shows weak/unremarkable results for both — no clear form advantage
• • Market prices favor the home player strongly (implied 63.9%), leaving value in the away price if probabilities are closer to even