Hanyu Guo vs Honoka Kobayashi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Bookmaker pricing is heavily skewed to Hanyu Guo; given near-identical profiles we estimate Kobayashi's true chance ~48%, making the 10.0 moneyline a large-value play.
Highlights
- • Home priced at 1.05 implies ~95% chance despite parity in records
- • Away at 10.0 only needs >10% true probability to be profitable; we estimate ~48%
Pros
- + Huge edge relative to implied market probability
- + Estimate is conservative vs the extreme market skew
Cons
- - Limited depth in the supplied data (no H2H, venue specifics, or injury reports beyond profiles)
- - Such large edges can indicate data quality issues, late withdrawals, or bookmaker correction risk
Details
The market prices Hanyu Guo as an overwhelming favorite at 1.05 (implied ~95.2%) while Honoka Kobayashi is available at 10.0 (implied 10%). The available player profiles show nearly identical career records (both 10-21) and matching recent form entries with no listed injuries or surface-driven advantage in the provided research. Given parity in form and results, we assess the true match probability much closer to even rather than the market split. Using a conservative true-win estimate of 48% for Kobayashi, the away price of 10.0 offers substantial value (EV = 0.48*10 - 1 = 3.8). Even if our probability estimate is overstated, Kobayashi only needs ~10% chance to break even at 10.0, so the current market price appears heavily mispriced in favor of the home.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and recent form in the provided data
- • No injuries, surface, or H2H differentials provided that justify an extremely lopsided market price
- • Market-implied probabilities (home ~95%) are implausible given the parity in available research