Hao Ching Chan / Clara Tauson vs Lois Boisson / Suzan Lamens
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market is overstating the home pair; at current 1.167 there is no value given our conservative estimated win probability of 65%.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability ~85.7% vs our estimated 65%
- • Fair odds required (~1.538) are materially higher than offered
Pros
- + Market consensus clearly favors the home side (liquidity/market confidence)
- + If additional inside info or lineup changes emerge, market could move and create value
Cons
- - Current price (1.167) yields a large negative EV versus our probability model
- - Research provides no distinctive evidence that the home pair is markedly superior
Details
We see very limited and symmetric information across both pairs: all four players' provided profiles show similar recent records and surface experience with no clear edge. The market currently prices the home side at 1.167 (implied ~85.7% win probability). Based on the available data (identical losing records, no H2H, no injury or clear form advantage, and uncertainty about surface impact), we estimate a more conservative true win probability for the home pair of 65%. At that probability the fair odds would be roughly 1.538. The current market price of 1.167 is substantially shorter than fair value, producing negative expected value (EV = 0.65*1.167 - 1 = -0.2415). Therefore we do not recommend betting this market at current prices.
Key factors
- • Provided player profiles are nearly identical with poor/neutral recent records
- • Market-implied probability (85.7%) far exceeds our conservative true estimate (65%)
- • No reported injuries, H2H, or surface advantage in the supplied research to justify heavy favoritism