Haoyuan Huang vs Ezekiel Clark
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value detected: Clark is rightly heavy favorite but price (1.216) is too short versus our estimated 78% win probability; Huang’s price (3.82) does not offer an edge given his form.
Highlights
- • Our fair price for Clark ≈ 1.282 (78% win probability)
- • Current market odds for Clark (1.216) produce negative EV (~-5.15% ROI)
Pros
- + Clark: more experience and larger match sample on hard courts
- + Huang: large underdog payout if one believes sample variance and limited matches understate his chance
Cons
- - Clark: recent form shows losses and a sub-50% career win rate overall, so heavy market favoritism may be steep
- - Huang: very small sample and poor recent record (2-6) limit upside reliability
Details
The market heavily favors Ezekiel Clark at 1.216 (implied ~82.3%). After reviewing available form and career samples, we estimate Clark’s true win probability at ~78% (0.78). Using that estimate the fair (break-even) decimal price is 1.282; the current price 1.216 is below that, producing a negative expected return. Haoyuan Huang’s record (2-6 in limited play on hard) and small sample size do not convince us he has >26.2% chance needed to make his 3.82 price (+ implied ~26.2%) profitable. Given the information provided, neither side offers positive expected value at current widely-available prices, so we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Ezekiel Clark has substantially more match experience on hard courts than Huang
- • Haoyuan Huang has a small sample size and a 2-6 recent record, reducing confidence in upset value
- • Market price for Clark (1.216) is shorter than our fair price (1.282), eliminating positive EV