Harold Mayot vs Gregoire Barrere
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices — Mayot is rightly favored but the 1.515 price is too short versus our conservative 60% win estimate.
Highlights
- • Mayot has grass experience; Barrere's profile lacks grass matches
- • Book price implies ~66% for Mayot; our best estimate is ~60%
Pros
- + Mayot's superior match volume and recorded grass play support him as the stronger pick
- + Market recognizes Mayot's edge (short price), reflecting real advantage
Cons
- - Current home price (1.515) is shorter than our required fair price (1.667) — negative EV
- - Research sample is limited and recent form details are sparse, increasing uncertainty
Details
We compare the bookmaker-implied probability for Harold Mayot (1.515 -> implied 66.0%) to our assessed win probability. Mayot has more matches overall, documented grass experience, and a better overall win rate than Barrere, who has no grass listed in his profile and a losing overall record. Given the limited data, we conservatively estimate Mayot's true win probability at 60.0%, below the 66.0% implied by the 1.515 price. At that estimate the home line offers negative expected value (EV = 0.60*1.515 - 1 = -0.091). The away price (2.56) would require Barrere to have >39.1% true win probability to be +EV; available data (limited clay/hard history and overall losing record) does not support that. Therefore we do not find value on either side at current prices.
Key factors
- • Surface: grass favors Mayot who has recorded grass matches; Barrere's profile lists only clay and hard
- • Career records: Mayot 42-35 (higher volume and better win rate) vs Barrere 17-21
- • Market-implied probability (66.0%) exceeds our conservative true probability estimate (60%), producing negative EV