Highlights

• • Bookmaker implies ~33.9% for Bertrand; our estimate is ~40%
• • Parity in records and recent results suggests the favorite is over-priced

Pros

• + Significant discrepancy between our probability estimate and market price
• + Bertrand has a comparable/higher career win count and experience on similar surfaces

Cons

• - Limited match-specific data (no H2H or clear surface/venue advantage provided)
• - Small sample noise in recent results makes the estimate less certain

Details

We see Harold Mayot heavily favored at 1.38 (implied ~72.5%) while the underlying profiles and recent results of both players do not justify such a large gap. Mayot (42-35) and Bertrand (46-35) have very similar career records and both play primarily on hard and clay; recent form for each is mixed rather than decisively in Mayot's favor. Given Bertrand's slightly stronger overall win tally and parity of surfaces, we estimate Bertrand's true chance around 40.0%, which is meaningfully higher than the market-implied ~33.9% at 2.95. At that probability Bertrand offers positive expected value: EV = 0.40 * 2.95 - 1 = +0.18 (18% ROI). We therefore recommend backing the away underdog only because the current price (2.95) appears to understate his realistic win probability.

Key factors

• • Very similar career records and experience on comparable surfaces
• • Recent form is mixed for both players, not strongly favoring Mayot
• • Market price likely overstates home/favorite bias, creating value on Bertrand