Harold Mayot vs Clement Chidekh
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see a small-value play on Harold Mayot at 1.543 due to a grass-surface edge; the edge is modest and carries uncertainty but produces a slight positive EV.
Highlights
- • Grass surface favors Mayot; Chidekh has no listed grass experience
- • Current odds (1.543) are slightly above our break-even threshold for the estimated probability
Pros
- + Surface advantage for Mayot
- + Bookmaker price leaves a narrow positive edge if our probability is correct
Cons
- - Edge is small (≈1.8% ROI) and sensitive to estimation error
- - Limited direct head-to-head or detailed grass-form data increases uncertainty
Details
The market prices Harold Mayot at 1.543 (implied ~64.8%). We estimate Mayot's true win probability slightly higher (~66.0%) because the match is on outdoor grass — a surface Mayot has played while Chidekh's profile lists only clay and hard, suggesting a relative surface advantage for Mayot. Overall career win rates are similar, but the grass edge and home/seeded-challenger familiarity justify a small uplift versus the market. With our 66% estimate the current price offers a small positive expected value after accounting for the bookmaker margin. This is a low-margin, higher-uncertainty value pick driven primarily by surface mismatch and comparable overall form.
Key factors
- • Surface: match on grass — Mayot has grass experience, Chidekh's profile lacks grass matches
- • Market price implies ~64.8% for Mayot; we estimate ~66% (small positive edge)
- • Overall career records are comparable, so surface tilt is the primary differentiator