Highlights

• • Market overprices Mayot at 1.25 (80% implied)
• • Bertrand at 3.8 offers substantial value if his win chance is ~38%

Pros

• + Clear mathematical edge: required odds (2.632) are well below current 3.8
• + Bertrand's career record in the research is marginally better than Mayot's

Cons

• - Limited detail on surface, head-to-head, and current physical condition increases uncertainty
• - Both players show mixed recent results, so single-match volatility is significant

Details

The market prices Harold Mayot as a heavy favorite at 1.25 (implied 80% win chance) while Robin Bertrand is offered at 3.8 (implied ~26.3%). From the provided profiles Bertrand has a slightly better career win-loss record (46-35 vs Mayot's 42-35) and both players show mixed recent form on hard surfaces. Given those facts and the absence of injury flags or dominant form for Mayot in the research, we estimate Bertrand's true win probability materially above the market-implied 26.3%. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 38% for Bertrand yields EV = 0.38*3.8 - 1 = +0.444 (44.4% ROI per unit). The minimum decimal odds required for Bertrand to be +EV at that probability is 1/0.38 = 2.632, well below the current quote of 3.8, indicating clear value at available prices. We acknowledge uncertainty from limited surface/H2H detail and varied recent results, so we size the confidence accordingly.

Key factors

• • Bertrand has a slightly stronger career win-loss record in the provided data (46-35 vs 42-35)
• • Market implies 80% for Mayot which is not supported by the available form/records
• • No injury flags in the research but recent match results are mixed for both players, adding uncertainty