Harry Thursfield vs John Hallquist Lithen
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given John's poor documented record versus the market's heavy favoritism, the home price 3.85 offers value; we estimate a 33% chance for the home and +27% ROI at current odds.
Highlights
- • Market implies John ~81.4% to win while his career win rate is ~28.6%
- • Home at 3.85 yields estimated EV ~+0.271 (27.1% ROI) under our conservative probability
Pros
- + Clear discrepancy between market odds and documented player form
- + Large decimal price (3.85) gives strong upside if John’s recorded struggles are meaningful
Cons
- - No direct data on Harry Thursfield or surface/context for this specific match
- - Limited sample size and recent-match detail for John; market could reflect information not in our sources
Details
The market strongly favors John Hallquist Lithen at 1.227 (implied ~81.4%) despite the only available research showing a poor career record (6-15 across 21 matches, ~28.6% career win rate) and mixed recent results. With that profile, the heavy favorite price appears overstated. We conservatively estimate Harry Thursfield's chance to win at 33% based on the mismatch between John's documented win rate/form and the market pricing. At the quoted home price of 3.85 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.33 * 3.85 - 1 ≈ +0.271, or +27.1% ROI). Key caveats: we lack any direct data on Thursfield, H2H, and exact surface/context specifics beyond John's clay experience, so we discount some certainty but still find value because the market's implied probability for John is extremely high relative to his documented results.
Key factors
- • John Hallquist Lithen career record 6-15 (21 matches) implies ~28.6% baseline win rate
- • Market strongly favors John (1.227) which implies ~81.4% — a large disconnect from his documented form
- • No available data for Harry Thursfield forces conservative probability assignment but still indicates value at 3.85