Harry Wendelken vs Mats Rosenkranz
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We identify value on Mats Rosenkranz at 1.877 because his career win rate (~59.5%) implies a higher true probability than the market-implied ~53.3%, yielding an estimated ~11.6% ROI.
Highlights
- • Away implied probability 53.3% vs our estimate 59.5%
- • Estimated EV ≈ +0.116 (11.6% ROI) at current odds
Pros
- + Clear edge between market-implied probability and career win-rate estimate
- + Rosenkranz has a larger match sample (74) lending reliability to his win percentage
Cons
- - Recent-form specifics and fitness/injury status are incomplete in the provided data
- - No head-to-head or contextual matchup details to further refine probability
Details
We compare the current away moneyline (1.877, implied 53.3%) to our estimate of Mats Rosenkranz's true win probability based on available career data. Rosenkranz's career record in the provided research is 44-30 (74 matches), a win rate of ~59.5%. Both players have experience on hard courts and recent results are mixed, but Rosenkranz's larger sample size and marginally higher career win rate indicate he is the stronger value pick. Using p = 0.595, the expected return on a 1-unit stake at decimal odds 1.877 is EV = 0.595 * 1.877 - 1 = +0.116 (11.6% ROI). The market requires a minimum true probability of 53.27% to justify a bet at 1.877; our 59.5% estimate comfortably exceeds that threshold, so the away side offers positive expected value. We note uncertainty from limited recent-form detail and lack of H2H data, which elevates risk but does not eliminate the clear value margin at the quoted price.
Key factors
- • Rosenkranz career win rate 44/74 ≈ 59.5%, higher sample size than opponent
- • Both players have experience on hard courts—no strong surface advantage indicated
- • Current away odds (1.877) imply ~53.3% chance, materially below our 59.5% estimate