Haruna Arakawa vs Elena Micic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given near-identical profiles and recent form, the market favorite (Arakawa) is slightly overvalued versus our 53% estimate, so there is no profitable value at current prices.
Highlights
- • Arakawa favored at 1.769 but our fair odds estimate is ~1.887
- • Both players' records and recent results provided show no decisive edge
Pros
- + Market reflects a clear favorite, which matches available profile information
- + Outcome is driven by small-sample performance — market is not wildly mispriced
Cons
- - No discernible value at current odds for either side
- - Limited and symmetric data provided increases uncertainty in any edge assessment
Details
We see near-identical career profiles and recent form for both players (10-21 records, similar surfaces), with no evidence of injury or H2H edge in the provided data. The market prices make Haruna Arakawa the favorite at 1.769 (implied ~56.5%), but our assessment of her win chance is ~53% given the small sample of results and comparable opponent quality — that implies required fair odds of ~1.887, which is longer than the available 1.769. At the available prices neither side offers positive expected value after comparing our estimated true probabilities to the market decimals, so we do not recommend taking a position.
Key factors
- • Both players show identical overall records (10-21) in the supplied profiles
- • No clear surface or injury advantage is present in the provided data
- • Market prices imply a stronger favorite than our assessed probability — no value