Haruna Arakawa vs Paola Lopez

Highlights

• • Market-implied favorite probability (85.5%) appears unsupported by the provided player data
• • At our estimated 38% win chance for Lopez, the 4.60 price yields strong positive EV

Pros

• + Large margin between market price and our estimated true probability
• + Both players' records and surfaces are similar, supporting a closer matchup than odds imply

Cons

• - Research is sparse: no head-to-head, seeding, or venue-specific data in the provided sources
• - High uncertainty in assigning a precise true probability given limited detail

Details

We see the market pricing Haruna Arakawa at 1.17 (implied ~85.5%) and Paola Lopez at 4.60 (implied ~21.7%). The research shows both players with virtually identical career profiles (31 matches, 10-21 record) and similar surface history and recent results, with no injury information or clear form edge in the provided data. There is no evidence in the research to justify an 85% win probability for the home player; given parity in records and surfaces, we assess the true chances as much closer. We estimate Paola Lopez's true win probability at 38% (home ~62%), which makes the available 4.60 price rich value. At that estimate the expected value for a 1-unit stake on Lopez is positive (EV = 0.38*4.6 - 1 = 0.748). We therefore recommend the away side only because the current market price offers positive EV relative to our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical records (31 matches, 10-21) in the provided profiles
• • Recent form in the research shows losses and no clear advantage to the favorite
• • Market implies an outsized favorite (85.5%) that is not supported by the supplied data