Hayu Kinoshita vs Alicia Smith
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No bet — market price for Hayu Kinoshita is unjustifiably short versus an equivalently profiled opponent, so there is negative expected value at current odds.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability (1.10) ≈ 90.9% vs our ~50% estimate
- • Required fair odds to break even on our estimate: 2.00 decimal
Pros
- + Clear and conservative probability assessment based on comparable player profiles
- + Avoids backing a heavily overpriced favourite with large negative EV
Cons
- - Public market may reflect information not present in the supplied research (e.g., late withdrawal, illness, or ranking disparity)
- - If we have under-assessed a true edge (unseen data), opportunity could be missed
Details
We find no value on the listed moneyline. The research shows both players with nearly identical profiles (10-21 record, similar matches and surfaces) and no H2H or injury information that would justify the market pricing. The current market price (Home 1.10) implies a ~90.9% win probability for Hayu Kinoshita; our assessment is that the true probability is roughly 50% given equivalent recent form and lack of differentiating factors. At that assessed probability the favourite is massively overbet and offers a large negative expected value, so we do not recommend taking either side at the posted prices.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical records and recent results (10-21) with no clear performance edge
- • Both have been playing the same surfaces (hard/clay) and recent form does not favor the heavy favourite
- • Market price (1.10) implies an implausibly high probability (≈90.9%) not supported by available data