Highlights

• • Market-implied win probability ~64.1% vs our estimate 48%
• • Fair odds (~2.083) are much longer than the offered 1.56

Pros

• + Listed as market favorite (shorter odds) which sometimes reflects other edges (unknown here)

Cons

• - Poor recent form and overall record (10-21) argue for a lower win probability
• - Missing opponent/H2H data creates high uncertainty and prevents identifying value on the away side

Details

We do not find value on Heerae Im/Dabin Kim at the quoted 1.56. The market implies ~64.1% chance (1/1.56) but the available player data shows weak form and results: both players carry a 10-21 record and multiple recent losses on hard and clay, which argues for a substantially lower win expectancy than the market price. There is also no opponent data or H2H provided to justify the market favoritism. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 48%, the fair odds are ~2.083, far longer than the offered 1.56, producing a negative EV. Given the information gap on K. Soeda/S. Tsujioka and the poor recent form of Im/Kim, we refrain from recommending either side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Home pair's recorded win-loss is weak (10-21)
• • Recent match history shows multiple recent losses on hard and clay
• • No data provided for opponents or head-to-head, increasing uncertainty