Highlights

• • Book implied probability for Helena: ~90.1%; our estimate: 33%
• • Required fair odds for value on Helena would be ~3.03 — far above market price

Pros

• + Market strongly favors Helena (short price) — indicates a heavy favorite in public markets
• + If unseen opponent weakness exists, the market may be correct (but we lack that data)

Cons

• - Helena's documented form and career win rate do not justify a 90% implied win probability
• - No information on the opponent or match context in our research increases downside risk

Details

We only have Helena Bueno's profile (10-22 career record, recent losses) and the market moneyline (Helena 1.11, Isabela 6.1). The book market implies Helena has ~90.1% win probability (1/1.11). Helena's available form and career win rate (10/32 ≈ 31%) and recent results do not support anywhere near a 90% true chance. Conservatively estimating Helena's true win probability at 33%, the fair decimal price would be ~3.03. At the current market price of 1.11 this is massively overpriced by the market relative to our estimate, producing a large negative EV, so we do not recommend backing Helena at available prices. We also lack any independent data on Isabela de Mattos Silva (no H2H, no injury/fitness intel), which increases uncertainty and prevents a confident value bet on the away side. Calculation: estimated_true_probability = 0.33; min_required_decimal_odds = 1/0.33 = 3.03; EV at current odds = 0.33 * 1.11 - 1 = -0.634 (negative), so no value.

Key factors

• • Helena's career record is poor (10-22) and recent match results show losses
• • Market implies ~90% for Helena (decimal 1.11), a large gap vs our ~33% estimate
• • No independent data on opponent (Isabela) or injuries/H2H increases uncertainty