Helena Bueno vs Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano

Highlights

• • Players are essentially matched on record and surface exposure
• • Current favorite odds (1.625) imply a higher win probability than our estimate, so no value

Pros

• + Avoids taking a short-priced favourite with negative EV versus our model
• + Conservative stance given incomplete differentiating information

Cons

• - If hidden factors (injury, surface suitability, H2H) favor the underdog, we may miss a small positive edge
• - Model uses limited publicly provided data, so small edges could be real but not visible

Details

We reviewed the available profiles: both players have nearly identical career records (Helena Bueno 10-22, Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano 10-21) and similar surface experience (clay and hard). The research provides no H2H, injury, or clear-surface advantage information to materially differentiate them. Given the parity in form and limited information, we assign a modest edge to the pre-match favorite (Marian) — an estimated true win probability of 55% — but the market price on Marian (decimal 1.625) is too short to offer positive expected value. Conversely, Helena’s price (2.13) would only be attractive if her true probability were meaningfully above 47%; with the available data we do not have justification for that uplift. Therefore we refrain from recommending a side because neither current price represents value versus our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical win-loss records and limited differentiating stats (10-22 vs 10-21)
• • No H2H, injury, or clear-surface advantage present in the provided research
• • Market strongly favors the away player (1.625) leaving no value vs our 55% estimate