Highlights

• • Helena favorite at 1.40; implied market probability ~71.4%
• • Our estimated true probability for Helena is 62%, requiring min decimal odds ~1.613 for value

Pros

• + Clear market pricing indicates the favorite is recognized
• + Research shows no red flags (injury/form) that would heavily swing probability in favor of the underdog

Cons

• - Available favorite price (1.40) is shorter than our fair price and yields negative EV
• - Research is sparse and largely identical for both players, increasing uncertainty

Details

We reviewed the available player profiles and the market prices. The research gives nearly identical career records and limited recent-form data for both players without clear surface- or injury-based edges. The market has Helena Stevic as a clear favorite at 1.40 (implied ~71.4%). Based on the sparse differential information (home status for Helena, both players listed with similar career records and recent results), we estimate Helena's true win probability at 62%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.613, which is longer than the available 1.40, so backing Helena at 1.40 yields negative expected value. Conversely, the away price 2.81 would require Anna Lena Ebster to have at least a 35.6% win chance to be +EV; given Helena's home/favourite status and the similar profiles we assess Ebster's win probability below that threshold. Therefore no side shows value versus the current market.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors Helena (1.40) implying ~71.4% win chance
• • Research data on both players is nearly identical; no clear form/injury advantage
• • Our estimated true probability for Helena (62%) makes the available price too short for value