Highlights

• • Book market implies Helena ~23% but our estimate is ~30%
• • Break-even decimal odds for Helena are ~3.333; current 4.35 exceeds that

Pros

• + Significant price discrepancy between implied and estimated true probability
• + Both players' recent results and surface exposure do not justify such a one-sided market

Cons

• - Limited data and lack of head-to-head or ranking context in the provided research
• - Heavy market favoritism toward Isabella could reflect information not present in the sources (e.g., fitness, ranking, wildcard status)

Details

We find value on Helena Stevic at 4.35. The book market implies Helena ~22.99% while Isabella is priced at ~85.40%. The player profiles show nearly identical career records (Helena 10-21, Isabella 10-22) and both have recent straight losses on hard courts; there are no injury notes or clear surface advantage in the provided research. Given parity in record and recent form, the market appears to over-favor Isabella. We estimate Helena's true win probability materially above the implied 23% — we conservatively place it at 30%. At that probability Helena's fair price is ~3.333; the available 4.35 offers positive expected value. EV calculation: EV = 0.30 * 4.35 - 1 = 0.305 (30.5% ROI). We acknowledge uncertainty and possible hidden factors not in the provided data, so we set risk as medium.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records (Helena 10-21 vs Isabella 10-22)
• • Both players show recent losses on hard courts in the provided recent form
• • Market implies a large gap (Helena ~23% vs Isabella ~85%) that is unsupported by the provided performance data