Highlights

• • Required win probability to break even on Squire at 1.059 is ≈94.45%
• • Our estimated win probability for Squire is ~85%, producing ~-9.99% ROI at current price

Pros

• + Squire has greater match experience and a significantly larger sample size
• + Kielan's 6-12 record and limited matches reduce his realistic upset chances

Cons

• - Neither player has clear grass data, increasing uncertainty around any estimate
• - Market is extremely short on Squire; even a small model error would flip outcomes

Details

The market price (Henri Squire at 1.059) implies the home must win ≈94.45% of the time to break even (1/1.059 = 0.9445). Based on the available profiles, Squire is the clear favorite—more matches (60) and a 30-30 record versus Kielan's limited 18 matches and 6-12 record—but neither profile shows strong grass data and both recent results are on clay/hard. Conservatively we estimate Squire's true win probability at ~85%, which values him far below the market-implied 94.45%. At that estimate the expected value at the current decimal price (1.059) is negative (EV = 0.85 * 1.059 - 1 = -0.09985), so there is no value to back Squire here. The away price (9.29) would only be attractive if we believed Kielan's upset probability >10.76% (1/9.29), which we do not given his form and limited results. Therefore we recommend no bet at the posted prices.

Key factors

• • Market implies an extremely high probability (≈94.45%) for Squire to win
• • Squire has larger sample size and better overall record; Kielan has limited match volume and poorer record
• • Both players' recent results are on clay/hard; grass form is unknown which increases uncertainty