Highlights

• • Market implies Squire >91% to win; we estimate ~80%
• • Surface and comparable player profiles argue against a one-sided mismatch

Pros

• + Squire is the stronger market favorite with a better overall record
• + If additional info emerges (injury to Schell or dominant grass form for Squire) the market could be mispriced

Cons

• - Price requires an implausibly high true probability for a qualifier match
• - Research shows limited grass evidence for Squire and some grass experience for Schell, lowering certainty

Details

We find no value on Henri Squire at the quoted 1.098. The market-implied probability for Squire is ~91.1% (1 / 1.098) which would require us to believe his true chance >91% to have a positive edge. Based on the provided profiles: both players are Challenger/ITF-level with mixed recent form; Squire has a roughly .500 career record (30-30) and limited grass evidence in the research, while Schell has played on grass previously and has comparable pro-level results. Given the surface (grass) and the lack of dominant form or data in the research to justify a >91% true win probability for Squire in a qualifier, we estimate Squire's true win probability at 80.0%. At that probability the bet is negative EV versus the current price (EV = 0.80 * 1.098 - 1 = -0.122), so we recommend taking no position.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors Squire (implied ~91%) — must clear an unusually high bar to be +EV
• • Squire's record is middling (30-30) and research shows limited grass-specific data
• • Schell has documented grass experience and similar challenger-level results, reducing blowout likelihood