Highlights

• • Book odds imply ~32.6% for Wenger; our estimate is ~38%
• • Minimum fair odds for Wenger are ~2.632; current 3.07 exceeds that

Pros

• + Price offers clear positive EV versus our probability model
• + Wenger's larger match sample reduces variance in his true ability estimate

Cons

• - Data samples are small and recent form info is limited/uneven
• - Bernet's recent clay wins suggest the favorite could still be the more likely winner

Details

We estimate Damien Wenger's true chance at ~38%. The market gives him 3.07 (implied ~32.6%) which understates his chance based on available data. Bernet's career win rate (9/14 = 64%) and recent clay wins give him an edge, but Wenger has a larger sample size (18/30 = 60%) and more match experience overall. Given both players' clay experience and mixed recent form for Wenger, we view the bookmaker's price as offering value on the underdog: 0.38 * 3.07 - 1 = +0.167 ROI per 1 unit staked. We therefore recommend the away side at current widely-available prices because the odds (3.07) exceed our minimum required decimal odds (2.632) for the estimated probability.

Key factors

• • Bernet has a higher recent win rate but a very small match sample (14 matches)
• • Wenger has greater overall match experience (30 matches) and a solid 60% career win rate
• • Both players have clay experience; market may be over-adjusting toward the home favorite