Highlights

• • Bernet has positive short sample form and recent clay wins
• • Current odds (1.23) are too short relative to our probability estimate

Pros

• + Recent wins on clay suggest comfort on that surface
• + Solid overall record (9-5) in the small sample

Cons

• - Small sample size increases uncertainty around a precise true probability
• - Market price (1.23) leaves no margin for error — EV negative even with a fairly high win-probability estimate

Details

We estimate Henry Bernet's true win probability at about 70% based on a small but positive career sample (9-5) and recent clay wins, while the market price of 1.23 implies ~81.3% probability. Comparing our estimate (70%) to the market (81.3%) shows the bookmaker is overestimating Bernet's chances; at the available price there is negative expected value. Given the limited match sample, lack of opponent context in the provided research, and the heavy favorite market price, we do not find value to recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Limited career sample: 14 matches, overall 9-5 record
• • Recent form shows wins on clay (18-Aug-2025 results), supporting competence on clay
• • Market odds (1.23) imply ~81.3% which exceeds our 70% estimate; no opponent/H2H data provided