Henry Jefferson vs Luis Felipe Miguel

Highlights

• • Luis priced 1.50 implies 66.7% win probability; our estimate is 60%
• • Insufficient or missing info on Henry prevents a justified contrarian play at 2.45

Pros

• + Available research documents Luis with a 4-2 record, indicating competence
• + Market is efficient enough that the favorite price roughly matches surface-weighted win-rate

Cons

• - Luis's results come from a very small sample and mainly clay events — mismatch risk if surface differs
• - No data on Henry Jefferson means upside for the underdog is unquantifiable and speculative

Details

We find no clear value on either side given the available research. The market prices Luis Felipe Miguel at 1.50 (implied win probability ~66.7%). Luis's limited documented record in the research is 4-2 (66.7%), largely on clay and from a very small sample, which supports a similar raw win-rate but does not justify the market's short price once surface/venue and opponent data are unknown. We estimate Luis's true win probability at 60% (0.60) based on limited form and surface specialization, which yields a negative expected value at the quoted 1.50. The home underdog (Henry Jefferson) at 2.45 implies ~40.8% but we have no independent data on him in the research to justify upgrading his win probability above the implied level. Given the uncertainty and lack of corroborating data for Henry, we will not recommend taking either side at the current prices.

Key factors

• • Small sample of match data for Luis Felipe Miguel (6 matches, 4-2) limits confidence
• • Documented matches for Luis are primarily on clay — surface may not match match venue
• • No information provided on Henry Jefferson (home), creating large uncertainty about underdog value