Henry Searle vs Carles Hernandez

Highlights

• • Book implies Hernandez win chance 15.4%; our estimate is ~22%
• • Searle's lack of clay history reduces his true probability below the heavy market price

Pros

• + Underdog price (6.50) yields strong theoretical ROI if our clay-adjusted estimate holds
• + Hernandez has direct clay experience and recent activity at similar-level events

Cons

• - Hernandez has an overall inferior win-loss record and smaller sample size (more variance)
• - Market may reflect other information (practice/injury/line-up) not detailed in the provided research

Details

We compare bookmaker-implied probabilities to our independent estimate. The market prices Henry Searle at 1.10 (implied 90.9%) and Carles Hernandez at 6.50 (implied 15.4%). The provided player profiles show Searle has most recorded matches on hard/grass and limited clay exposure, while Hernandez has clay listed among his surfaces and recent clay activity in Poznan and Pozzuoli events. Given the likely clay venue (Pozzuoli), Hernandez's surface suitability narrows the quality gap despite his inferior overall record. We conservatively estimate Hernandez's true win probability at 22.0% (0.22), significantly above the market-implied 15.4% for 6.50, producing positive expected value. At odds 6.50 the EV = 0.22*6.50 - 1 = 0.43 (43% ROI per unit). We use 6.50 as the odds for the EV calculation. We do not recommend backing Searle at 1.10 because his implied break-even probability (90.9%) is far higher than any realistic true probability given his limited clay resume and the competitiveness shown in his record.

Key factors

• • Venue likely clay (Pozzuoli) — Hernandez has clay history while Searle's profile shows hard/grass focus
• • Market heavy favoritism toward Searle (1.10) implies >90% win chance which we view as overstated on clay
• • Recent form/sample sizes: Hernandez fewer matches but recent clay activity; Searle more matches overall but limited clay evidence