Highlights

• • Heretics estimated win chance 37% vs market-implied 34.6%
• • Required odds to break even on our estimate: 2.703; market offers 2.89

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current public price (approx +6.9% ROI)
• + Conservative probability modeling reduces overconfidence in limited-information scenarios

Cons

• - No match-specific data (form, injuries/roster swaps, head-to-head) increases model uncertainty
• - Edge is moderate, not large; variance in esports means outcomes remain volatile

Details

With no external match-specific intel available we adopt a conservative model. The market prices Vitality at 1.426 (implied ~70.1%) and Heretics at 2.89 (implied ~34.6%) with a ~4.7% bookmaker overround. We estimate Heretics' true win probability at 37.0% based on parity tendencies in best-of-series esports matchups, roster stability assumptions, and the bookmaker margin. At decimal 2.89 this produces positive expected value: EV = 0.37 * 2.89 - 1 = +0.069 (6.9% ROI). By contrast, our estimated probability for Vitality (~63.0%) is below the market-implied ~70.1%, so the favorite offers no value. Given the available price for Heretics exceeds our min-required decimal odds (2.703), we recommend the home side as a value play while acknowledging elevated uncertainty from lack of matchup-specific data.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker overround (~4.7%) inflates favorite odds; look for value on underdog
• • Conservative true-probability estimate (37%) accounts for typical LEC volatility in absence of specific intel
• • High uncertainty due to no match-specific research (form, roster changes, map stats unavailable)