Hernan Casanova vs Juan Sebastian Gomez

Highlights

• • Book odds imply a ~90.4% win chance for Casanova; we estimate ~85%
• • Surface uncertainty (grass) and limited data on Gomez raise upset risk

Pros

• + Casanova has superior overall match experience and a stronger record in the provided data
• + Market clearly favors Casanova strongly, reflecting perceived class gap

Cons

• - No grass-court form is provided for either player, increasing uncertainty
• - The current price (1.106) requires >90.4% true probability to be +EV, which we do not assign

Details

We compare the bookmaker-implied probability for Hernan Casanova (1.106 -> ~90.4%) to our assessed win probability. Casanova has a larger match sample (46 matches) and a stronger win-loss record overall than Juan Sebastian Gomez (15 matches), suggesting he is the clear favorite. However, both players' recent recorded matches are on clay and hard courts with no grass history provided, which increases uncertainty and reduces confidence that Casanova is a >90% shot. Given the available evidence (form, sample sizes, and surface uncertainty) we estimate Casanova's true win probability around 85%. At the quoted price (1.106) that implies a negative expected value (EV = 0.85 * 1.106 - 1 ≈ -0.0599), so there is no value to back the heavy favorite at current market odds. For a wager to be profitable by our estimate, the line would need to be at least 1.176 or higher.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker-implied probability for the favorite is ~90.4%, higher than our estimate
• • Both players have no grass data in the provided records → higher model uncertainty
• • Casanova has larger sample size and better overall record vs Gomez's limited matches