Highlights

• • Implied market probability overweights the away (Miriana Tona) relative to available data
• • Home at 3.25 returns ~0.625 EV per unit at our 50% estimate

Pros

• + Strong positive EV at current market price versus our model
• + Assessment based on directly comparable career records and surface history

Cons

• - Research sample is limited and recent form details are sparse and inconclusive
• - Potential unknown factors (injury, travel, local conditions, late withdrawals) could invalidate the parity assumption

Details

We view the market as overstating the away's edge. Both players show effectively identical career records (10-21) and surface experience (clay and hard) in the provided data, with no H2H or injury information to justify a large gap. The current moneyline implies ~30.8% for the home (1/3.25) and ~76.9% for the away (1/1.3) — a disparity not supported by the available profiles. We therefore estimate Hibah Shaikh's true win probability at 50%; at decimal 3.25 that produces substantial positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.50 * 3.25 - 1 = 0.625 (62.5% ROI). This assumes parity between players based on the supplied research; if additional info (injury, surface specialization, travel, or head-to-head) exists, it could change the assessment.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience in the supplied data
• • Market prices heavily favor the away (1.30) creating a large implied probability gap not supported by the research
• • No injury, H2H, or surface advantage information provided to justify the away's strong pricing