Highlights

• • Home (Shiraishi) offers a positive EV at current price 2.27
• • Favourite (Dellavedova) looks overpriced by the market-implied probability vs supplied career records

Pros

• + Price (2.27) gives a clear mathematical edge if our 47% estimate holds
• + Both players' recent results on hard are mixed, reducing a strong favorite edge

Cons

• - Limited match-level detail and no H2H data in the provided sources increases uncertainty
• - Career records are aggregated and may not fully reflect event-level form or draw strength

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Hikaru Shiraishi (1 / 2.27 = 44.1%) to our assessed true probability of 47%. Both players have broadly similar career win rates over the period in the provided data (Shiraishi 38-27, Dellavedova 46-35), and both have recent mixed results on hard courts. Shiraishi's marginally higher career win percentage and comparable recent form support a true-win estimate slightly above the market-implied 44.1%. At the quoted price of 2.27 this produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.47 * 2.27 - 1 ≈ 0.067), so the home side offers value versus the bookmaker's odds. We remain cautious because sample sizes, lack of H2H data and event-level differences introduce variance.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Shiraishi is ~44.1% (2.27) which is below our 47% estimate
• • Career win rates in the supplied data are similar, with Shiraishi marginally ahead (38-27 vs 46-35)
• • Both players show mixed recent form on hard courts in the provided match logs
• • Bookmaker margin inflates favorite Dellavedova's implied chance (~63%) relative to both players' career win rates