Highlights

• • Market-implied home probability = ~43.9% vs our estimated 50%
• • Positive expected value at current home odds (EV ≈ 0.14)

Pros

• + Clear numerical value gap between market price and our probability estimate
• + No researched factor in favor of the market favorite to justify the short price

Cons

• - Small information set: limited match detail and no H2H or injury confirmation
• - Edge depends on our 50% assumption; if market has unobserved info, value could disappear

Details

We estimate value on Himari Sato (home) because the market prices Laquisa Khan as a clear favorite (away 1.549, implied ~64.5%) despite the research showing both players have effectively identical public profiles (both 10-21 career records, same surfaces played, and similar recent match listings). With no clear form, surface, injury, or H2H edge in the research, a neutral prior of ~50% for either player is reasonable. The current home price 2.28 implies a win probability of ~43.9%, which is well below our estimated true probability of 50%, producing positive expected value. We therefore recommend the home side only because expected_value > 0 at the provided odds (EV = 0.50 * 2.28 - 1 = 0.14).

Key factors

• • Both players have essentially identical public records (10-21) and surface experience
• • No injury, H2H, or other distinguishing information available in the research
• • Market strongly favors the away player, creating a potential value opportunity on the home under these assumptions