Highlights

• • Sato's career win-rate (10/31 ≈ 32%) and recent losses conflict with a 92.6% implied market chance
• • Required fair odds for value on Sato would be ~2.857 (implied win probability 35%)

Pros

• + Clear quantitative mismatch between market-implied probability and the player's recent/form record
• + Decision conservative due to missing opponent data—avoids overconfidence from incomplete info

Cons

• - Assessment relies only on limited data for Sato and has no information on Carbis which creates uncertainty
• - If there are off-source reasons for the market pricing (e.g., Carbis injury, withdrawal), we can't account for them

Details

The market has Himari Sato as a near-certain favorite at 1.08 (implied 92.6%). Our assessment, based solely on the provided player profile, assigns Sato a much lower win probability given a 10-21 career record (32% raw win-rate) and recent losing form in her last matches. There is no information provided on Jemma Carbis or any head-to-head, injury, or local-surface advantage that would justify the market's extreme pricing. Using a conservative estimated true probability for Sato of 35%, the current price (1.08) produces a large negative expected value (EV = 0.35*1.08 - 1 = -0.622). To find value on Sato we would need odds around 2.857 or higher. Given the available data, the market price is substantially overconfident and does not offer value on either side.

Key factors

• • Himari Sato career record 10-21 indicates weak overall win rate
• • Recent form shows multiple consecutive losses, reducing short-term win probability
• • No available data on opponent Jemma Carbis or H2H to justify market's heavy favorite price