Holly Hutchinson vs Ashmitha Easwaramurthi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find clear value on Ashmitha at 4.1: our estimated win probability ~63% yields a very large positive EV, so we recommend the away side given the quoted price.
Highlights
- • Implied away probability 24.4% vs our estimated 63%
- • EV = +1.583 (158% ROI) at current odds 4.1
Pros
- + Strong experience and superior career win rate for Ashmitha
- + Market price is an extreme underdog quote that creates significant mathematical value
Cons
- - Limited recent-match detail and no explicit surface/fitness/injury info in the research
- - Short sample size for Holly means model could be skewed if Holly is in unreported improved form
Details
The book price (away 4.1 => implied 24.4%) materially undervalues Ashmitha given the available profiles. Ashmitha has a long, successful career (559-507) and a substantially higher career win rate (~52%) compared with Holly's 10-21 (≈32%), which we convert into a head-to-head expectation favoring Ashmitha. Normalizing career win rates gives Ashmitha ~62% baseline; allowing for recency both players showing recent losses but Ashmitha's overall experience and consistency justify a true win probability near 63%. At that probability the minimum fair decimal price is ~1.587 and the current 4.1 quote offers large positive EV (EV = 0.63*4.1 - 1 = 1.583), so the away price represents strong value even after accounting for bookmaker margin and uncertainty. Key caveats: surface/venue specifics and injury/fitness status are not provided; if the match is on a surface or conditions that heavily favor a big-serving youth or there is an unreported fitness issue for Ashmitha, value would be reduced.
Key factors
- • Large career and match-experience advantage for Ashmitha (559-507 vs 10-21)
- • Career win-rate differential translates to ~62-63% head-to-head expectation
- • Current market price (4.1) implies only ~24% — a major discrepancy implying strong value