Highlights

• • Away odds (1.07) imply ~93.5% — inconsistent with Kikawada's 10-21 career record
• • At our conservative 20% estimate, Sodeyama at 8.50 yields ~70% ROI (EV = 0.70)

Pros

• + Large mismatch between market price and the opponent's documented form
• + Very favorable decimal price (8.50) gives high upside if our conservative estimate is correct

Cons

• - Research is limited — no direct data for Honami Sodeyama; recommendation relies on inference
• - High uncertainty in true probability; market may be correct due to factors not included in the provided data

Details

We see a large market skew: the away price (Riko Kikawada) at 1.07 implies ~93.5% win probability while the home price (Honami Sodeyama) at 8.50 implies ~11.8%. The only player data available (Kikawada) shows a weak win-loss record (10-21, ~32% career win rate) and clear recent struggles with consecutive losses on both hard and clay in the most recent entries. That career and recent form profile is inconsistent with a 93% market probability. Given that discrepancy, we believe the market has materially overestimated Kikawada here (likely due to missing public data about the opponent or a posting error), creating value on Sodeyama. Conservatively estimating Sodeyama's true win probability at 20% (reflecting uncertainty but acknowledging Kikawada's poor form), the home price of 8.50 offers strong positive expected value. We therefore recommend backing the home under the current quoted price, while noting the recommendation is based on limited available research and carries elevated uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Kikawada (≈93.5%) is implausibly high given her 10-21 career record
• • Recent match log for Kikawada shows multiple recent losses and form issues across surfaces
• • Large discrepancy between implied home probability (≈11.8%) and our conservative true estimate (20%) creates significant value